18 Mar How to Predict the Future
losing money investing in the stock market recently. While there are many equities that are reasonably safe, there are no guarantees. Especially when you venture into the insane world of triple-leveraged world ETFs/ETNs—as far as I’m concerned, putting your money in these is the equivalent of going to a casino with a wad of money burning a hole in your pocket.
Any way you slice it, playing the markets has a lot in common with gambling and sports betting. You are rooting for a particular outcome amidst uncertainty.
Uncertainty can be profitable—just ask any insurance company.
You know what can be even more profitable? Selling certainty during uncertain times.
To be clear, no one can actually predict the future with 100% accuracy. There are some people out there who have a knack for prognostication, but according to this article, even just 55% accuracy is a big deal. A lot of times, you just end up remembering someone’s right calls because, well, they’re more memorable than wrong ones.
A good example of this might be Cramer of Mad Money fame—arguably the most visible stock picker around. Yet the writer of this article finds his picks so ill-conceived that he does the exact opposite of what Cramer says and makes good profits.
StockTwits.com—essentially Twitter for the stock market—has thousands of Cramer wannabes running around, predicting the future with absolute conviction.
As a user of that site, I’ve lost track of the number of times literally everyone on a particular stream would promote that stock. Proclamations of doubling and tripling in value within minutes would echo. This was a sure thing. Except that it wasn’t. The stock would plummet. And this happens so often, that it’s almost… predictable.
Except that it’s not. Nothing is. The time you bet against the consensus could be the time they’re actually right.
Guess how many times someone predicted every game in their March Madness bracket. It’s only 64 games. Statistically speaking, given the hundreds of millions of brackets that have been filled out, it must happen once in a blue moon, right?
Not even close. In fact, there is no documented proof that anyone has ever picked a perfect bracket.
With that in mind, realize that there is only one foolproof way to know the future. And that’s to change it yourself.
Now, I don’t mean fixing boxing matches or insider trading. I mean making your stamp on the world on your terms. Starting a business that changes the industry its in. Doing research because you sense it has earth-shattering impact, which results in your findings having earth-shattering impact. Even something as simple as deciding you want to get into a selective program and then getting into that selective program.
In times of uncertainty—which, let’s face it, is always—there’s nothing like a sure thing.
While it won’t happen overnight. Commit to every day you being that much surer than the last. Until one day, you get to the point where betting on yourself is like betting the sun is going to rise the next morning.
That’s how you predict the future.